Thursday, November 18, 2010

Week Nov 15th - Thursday Update

As expected in Sunday's post, Mkt has had its gasp up into exactly 212.00.  Last gasp? Not sure.  Yesterday I thought there was a 20 % chance for a new high this year.  Today, I still see it only as 30 % - basically due to the generally positive sentiment.  Still, The move off of the high as a nice 5 wave decline with an ending diagonal finishing just above the 198.65 break out a few weeks ago (bullish).  The rest of the move has been another 5 wave move up - which makes me think there may still be some more upside in the next few weeks.  But, again,  I still do not see a new high.

Still like the put spread combo with short calls; 270 call vs 190/180 put spread.

Tradflow - finished right at the 211.95/ resistance and near the 62 % retracement.
The fall was more impulsive than this rise and more volume with the decline.
OI has fallen from 150 k to 130 k in 7 trading days.
Weekly and daily slow stochastic sell signals.

.... let's see tomorrow's OI report.

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