Sunday, May 1, 2011

May 1st - Really funds, you couldn't get a 3.00 close on a zero volume Friday w/settlment at 299.85?

Not sure what to say about a 299.85 Friday settlement.  Last two weeks have been the two weekest volume months since Dec.  Frost season coming, so I may not get the correction I was looking for, but Ill still hold out for my consecutive closes above 3.00 as confirmation the trend has resumed.  Open interest seems more bullish than bearish, but nothing standout.  Roaster position interesting in that still relatively low futures but high option component (roaster position probably has some 100 % long trade houses, therefor their OI position moving into the "roaster side").

Point and figure - so far, PF has been the most reliable chart tool.  None of the downside targets are being met and nearly all of the upside targets are being met: confirmation of the strength of the overall trend.  Targeting up to 334 now.

60 min - pattern less clear, but of the two possibilities, still seems to point down in the short-term.  If it does continue up from here, it will like a 5 wave move off of 255 and therefore, likely beginning of wave 5 of 5 and the big rally I was hoping for later on.  I am about 60 % sure on that; ie, not very. More of a wait and see approach now.



Weekly - took out the bearish shooting star candle, but still trapped in upper channel line.



Real - bouncing off 2008 low.



Roaster - roaster position interesting.  relatively low OI, but very high option component. At the least, its supportive over then next 6 months.



Funds - fund position turn up again. Relatively low option component going in to frost season. Might be indictive of a willingness to play the long side with futures....and thus, probably a lot of volatility going forward.