Sunday, January 23, 2011

Week 24th of Jan - Dumb money dominates

Open interest report showed several bearish factors.
* small spec at highest net long position since 2007.
* roasters had increased their buying pre-226 fall; ie, they bot a lot more than the report is showing.
* All indicators pointing down.
OI reports are terrible for targeting price, but great at showing immanent change. And I think that's what it is showing. Any upside movement is going to find resistance at 245.50 (several fibonacci targets) or current high of 244.50.
So, I continue to be bearish but respect the fact that 228 gave out and the market recovered.

Still expect to see 200 before 270.

Roaster OI


Small Spec - net position - few shorts to cover and lots of longs.






60 Min - I really dont think the mkt has the force to breakout of this channel and the topping pattern is a bull horn top.


Indicators - both maxing out....finally !!