Mkt did make an attempt above 190 but was held back. However, it held the 182.95 breakout point. I still see the odds of breaking 198/200 this year as only 20 %, but I do expect one more attempt up this week - some short-term indicators pointing at 194/195.
Recommendation is still to step in (tip toe in) on the short side with a stop above the 198 high. If not, be prudent and look to sell/add with a break below 182.95.
The overall context in which I am trading is that we are in a bull market and that this is either the 5th wave eventually pointing to above 220 or that this is only wave III of a much larger bull market - either way, it's up. The intermediate trend is an ending third wave which should correct back no further than 150.
This is a weekly graph illustrating the overall picture. Still quite a bit of upside, but likely to get in at a much better level. Breaking 198 would negate this short-term perspective and thus would be looking for 220 next, then the correction.
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Again, looking at the 60 minute, mkt held nicely the 182.95 breakout and is putting in a correct flag pattern targeting 194/195.
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My cautionary note is that the fall from 198 to 172 was text book correction and therefor might suggest the rally continues above 198 shortly. As I have stated, I recognize this potential, but think enough other factors (open interest, willingness of Brazilian farmer to sell at these levels (considerable coffee was sold Thursday/Friday at these levels) and other technical factors suggesting market needs to consolidate more, before next leg up.
Fund net position: they had been liquidating as evident by this graph, however, have bought again. The pattern suggests they will liquidate a little more.
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Producer - producer position tends to move counter to the market.
