Week Nov 29th - OI update - N.Korea's "rain of furious hellfire"....

....has yet to materialize in coffee or anywhere for that matter, but Europe's woes have taken it's toll its currency and that has put pressure on coffee.  As per last night's Euro graph, we have closed solidly below the channel line and support.  This does not bode well for coffee, but nor does it preclude any short-term rally.  Open interest didn't offer any surprises but it makes me a little more sure we will not see a new high this year, but also a little less sure see exaggerated downside (155?). New high this year? Back to only 20 %.  Big new high next year (270 +)? 90 %.  Do we see 170 before 240?  60% chance and increasing.

Note: very surprised how many people are super bullish.

Bear graphs

Monthly - if tomorrow closes close to this, it will be a very bearish evening star candle.

Weekly - lots of stair step support on the way down.
* bearish divergence on slow stochastic
* 2 weeks ago, bearish shooting star still holding high in place.
* Last weeks bearish engulfing pattern/dark cloud cover - very bearish since it encompasses  the high and the close
* open interest steadily declining

60 Min - after break, found resistance at trend line.  Still, I expect this to be choppy and wouldnt be surprised at more attempts up.
* i dont buy this head and shoulders pattern

Open interest indicator.- makes me think upside it at best limited in the short term.

Week Nov 29h -

Open Interest comes out tomorrow, but a quick update.

Tough to read too much into Friday's fall off given the volume, but my single worst trade (long) was Thanksgiving 2008 with a similar low volume fall that precipitated a 5 day fall off to a 3 year low.  Lots to be weary of these days - I'll elaborate tomorrow.

Notable: Weekly chart showing a bearish engulfing pattern (key reversal) on further slow stochastic divergence and monthly to post a very bearish evening star.


60 Min Chart - cleaned up the chart and am now building bear targets. The bull counter argument is that this is a wedge pattern pointing to substantial upside.  Im still in the only 30 % chance we see a new high this year (but 90 % we see one next year).

Euro - evening started off with a big move up in reaction to the Irish bail out, but has come off sharply.  Friday's close below the 133.37 level was key, but needs further confirmation.  All quite bearish coffee.

d