Week Nov 22nd - Tuesday update

12 Cent fall from Sunday - I'm right?  10 cent rise from today's low - Im wrong ? Answer, both are wrong.  The pattern off of the 213 high was a perfect ABC, 1:1 correction (Today's low was an exact 1 multiple of the first leg). Unfortunately, it still leaves open the upside.  But, I have not changed my odds on a new high:  still 30%. All bets off with a close above 216.  If this plays out as a correction with further downside, market should not get too into the 216 area.

Tradeflow: Looking for that 216 level.   Still recommend the short call vs the 190/180 puts spread.

Euro below 133.36 should strengthen the downside argument.

Week Nov 22nd - "...real money is made by the waitin' and not the tradin'..."

Mkt held the 212 area on both Thursday and Friday, but given strong Euro and SP500 futures, would expect to break that tomorrow morning, generating some more short covering; however, not too much since the fund short position is at near historic lows (short 3,808 as per Friday's disaggregated OI report).

Still, in general, I am sticking with the short-term bear opinion; 30 % chance we see a new high this year.  If we get in corrective mode soon, I expect we can surprise on the downside - 170 to 160 even. 60 cents from high and yet still 30 cents above this years early range.

Trade: still the H11 190/180 put spread financed by the H11 270 call.  Patience on this one is generating 1 to 2 cents premium.

Bull argument:
* Trend is up
* Buckets of money have/had been pouring into commodities.
* We have basically held the 198.65 level - leaves open another wave up.
* Fund net position is not too exaggerated - at 29,878.  2008 high was near 55 k.
* Washed shortage being aggravated by weather problems in CentAm and Asia.
* ICE stocks dropping at big clips.
* Elliot Wave showing big upside over next year and half.
* Who will aggressively sell this?

Bear
* Trend is up, but we are well oversold at 13 year highs.
* Daily and Weekly slow stochastic sells - Weekly showing negative divergence.
* Candles: Weekly still with bearish shooting star and daily still with three black crows.
* Mkt has hit all bull targets and now seems to pointing towards corrective targets.
* Elliot Wave suggesting we need a corrective 4th wave.
* Definitive shortage, but we should see more selling pressure coming in next weeks/months as more production comes to market. (Brazil probably ard 60 % sold).
* Open Interest indicators pointing down.
* OI has dropped nearly 20 k in 8 trading days.
* Who will buy this? Little short covering from funds left, roasters were forced to buy into FND.

Graphs
Tradeflow - if this rally is corrective, then it should not get beyond the high and may only point as high as 216

60 Min - don't want to see a new high, but if we do, I don't expect it above 226. So far, these targets have worked well; strengthens the long term bull argument, but also makes a short-term swing play down interesting.

Weekly - still looking for the question mark, but long term is up - big new highs next year.

Proprietary - getting the big reversal I was looking for.  Looking for confirmation this week.

Proprietary - confirming downside.