Friday, February 3, 2012

Just be long ....

...and wrong is what the last post should have said.  It's been ages since the last one.  Mainly because my short term bull argument ended and we entered this sideways pattern.  But, since I think we are now about to break out of it, might as well document that view.

Who is more short? The Euro shorts or the Coffee shorts?  Obviously the Euro shorts, but that will be the catalyst for driving out the coffee shorts.

Will follow up after today's OI, but basically I think the whole pattern off of the 308 high is an ABC correction.  Always felt that, but thought that August's rally had marked Aug's lows as the end of the c C wave.  Was wrong.  But now, think this last low - and key reversal - has marked the end of C. How did this go down?  Ending Diagonal for the C wave. A series of ABC waves (5 in total):  ABC up, ABC down...etc. All of this well contained within the downtrend channel.  As the last ABC down indicates it, the length of A = the length of C; as has in nearly this whole ending pattern.  Could it make when last dash below the 210? Maybe, but I would look to test this as a bottom.