Up, up and away

Been a while since last post....which I wish I could erase.  Mkts effortless run continues with (reckless) abandon.  Or, is this the most fundamentally sound bull market ever? One interesting point to note is that the market bounced off what had historically (last 30 years) been a point of resistance; in that, it was the high of 86 and 94. While not documented, my view was that if we broke the 252 fibonacci target, the next target would be 276 (which we did within 10 pts). Next target, if mkt follows through, is 292. This week was the most bullish weekly performance since Dec/10. Driven obviously a bit by price fixing before first notice day, but I think complacent funds are now hoping back on.

Long term perspective
* A close above 276.00 should open up next tgt box and upper trend line.
* From elliot wave perspective, this is still the extended 3rd wave of a 5th.  Expectation then is that, even if this is an intermediate high, there is still more upside eventually.

Roaster position as per Futures and Options COT report.
* Disaggregated open interest for Roasters
* Grey - Nov-Mar, higher demand
* Obs: steep drop off of OI is obviously option related.
1) could be an exorbitant amt of long calls/short puts with  low deltas expiring (1 week before)
2) faulty data * if the option were in the money, there would be less of a drop off.  Deltas 1 week before expiration would have been low enough that the net position should not have moved, unless there were lots and lots of options.  ?? still not clear to me yet.
* Take home: historically (last 5 years) high roaster position at this time of year has marked at least a period of price stability if not, further upward movement.

GCA stocks - stocks have moved up recently, but looking at the historical monthly movements, that trend is likely to nipped in the bud shortly. Feb and March should be months in which stocks increase.  Jan in both last year and this year was below norm. Last year, Feb was dramatically below average (actually a decline).  I think it is very unlikely what we will see stocks increasing, especially given Brazil's off year coming up (despite being a very strong off year).

Conclusion:  Tough to buy now, but this mkt has more upside (4?? maybe). 3, a given.  3 a given without a meaningful correction?  Seemed so unlikely, but maybe this market is that bullish.