Week March 21st (Wednesday upate)

Looks like you could add to a short with a break below 268.20 and lower the stop to 275.40.  A break above 275.40 would target 290 and might make a new short term long interesting.  Still, pattern is bearish.

60 Minute - never call a H&S before it happens...but it is tempting.

Point and Figure - triple bottom sell set up. Targets 250. None of the upside targets were met = bearish.

Week March 21st (Monday update): Bull resumed?

So far the rally off 260 has hit what could we be considered good "bounce" targets (281.20 was previous support and a 1.38 multiple of first bounce).  So, is it a bounce, or a bull resumed?  Last week I thought we would try for 280; mission accomplished, Sr Arbusto. Therefore, I'd be a seller with a stop at today's high and would have sold 280 gladly. Again, trading against trend, but tight stop with good downside potential. Open interest mixed but more supportive of bear argument, than bull. Still, any move to the downside should be viewed as corrective and eventually we will see a new high.

We will probably have a lot of people talking about the new head and shoulders pattern forming, again (remember all the talk at 200).  There is the potential, but far from any sell signal as of yet.

In conclusion:  we got where I thought we would and I think we could see further downside.  All bets off/postponed with a close above 282.

Weekly - bearish shooting star in effect and slow stochastic offering sell signal.

Fund - substantial long liquidation with little increase in shorts.  So, no short cover and ammo to sell and those that didn't get out probably thinking twice about it now and likely to take advantage of this bounce.

Indicator turning up but not yet accelerating.  Still, it is bearish.

60 minute - rally looks corrective on little volume.  Possible H&S pattern forming.

Euro (weekly) - at critical point.  needs to be held back by 143 level. A break of that changes the scenario substantially = bullish/ supportive of commodities.