Week April 4th (brazil export update)

How big was the 2010/11 crop? Jan/March shipments as per Cecafe (unofficial).
* There was a larger than normal proportion of Conillon, but only slightly. However, could be indicative of blend changes.
* Record month after record month of shipments.  Even at 56 million, there is not going to be much left.

Week April 4th (Tuesday)

Despite the big day, seems obvious that, after a nearly a 42 cent fall, we would have a substantial correction.  I expected it last week, but we never got the buy signal (break abv 270); and even today, we still didn't break it vs K11. Still, today was a key reversal bullish engulfing pattern (opposite of what launched the fall from 297).

Not much to add this week.  Tomorrow should break 270 and that will provide the correction targets.

Expectation in medium term is that we still see a little more downside before the trend up resumes. Short term (this week next..??), maybe another test of 282.

Daily - bullish engulfing, but bouncing off 20 day MovAve. Slow stochastic oversold and nearly nearly offering buy signal.

60 Min - looks to be a completed 5 wave down (beginning diagonal ?).  So, would imply more downside after the correction up.