Intraday the market has closed below and been held back by its short term moving averages and is closing back within the medium term bull channel. However, it also looks like yet another bull flag or triangle continuation pattern. I'd still be more inclined to sell it, but would have to stop out abv the high on any new shorts or any shorts initiated last week. For the bulls, 230 and 228.65 will have to hold. If they don't, there should be considerable break down.
Euro's break of the 200 day moving average last week and the index reweighting should keep pressure on the downside. Comparing coffees index open interest to sugar's index open interest would suggest that coffee is behind and will need to sell considerably this week.
Tradeflow - early sign of continuation of the bull trend would be a break above 238.00. Has a little bit of a blow off feel to it; but that was the 22nd of December and not really valid given holidays. Decent volume into Friday's sell off.
60 Min - mkt could fall to 200 and still be contained within bull trend.
Elliot - I still like the count; this is the 3rd of wave 5. That should mean that we correct no lower than 150 (not likely that we get even close - but that would be breaking an elliot rule below). From that correction we get a massive 5th wave up.
Interesting to not that we basically hit at 1.618 extention of wave 1 of 5. Lets say it does that. What are the targets? If 4th wave hits 200, then the 5th of 5th could see 292 or 370.
This indicator is begging for a correction.
Index funds - have yet to reduce their position.
