Tradeflow - today's low was right on two fibonacci targets. Not as clean a pattern as before, but above 190.45 it's still corrective.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Week Nov 1st Wednesday Update
Odds still favor the upside. The tradeflow graph below shows the nice support that came in at the end driving the market above where most stops were elected. If you aren't already long, then look to add with mkt above 197.60; or add to it. Stop can be below today's low 192.80 or breakout 190.45 (stop below 190.00). Market still within medium term channel and move up seems unfinished. Give Euros rally, London should be up tomorrow and that should carry through to NY.
Tradeflow - today's low was right on two fibonacci targets. Not as clean a pattern as before, but above 190.45 it's still corrective.
Tradeflow - today's low was right on two fibonacci targets. Not as clean a pattern as before, but above 190.45 it's still corrective.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Week Nov 1st
Basically, everything hinges on the QEII announcement coming up on Wednesday. Given that, I'd buy any dip going into it with a stop below 193.80. Far away, but I think you have to be long and therefore, you do not want to get stopped out on what will be volatile. Brazilian Holiday on Tuesday (long 4 day weekend) and therefore there should be some reduced selling pressure.
Two strategies on the QEII. 1) If the mkt is below current level (204ish), you should be ready to buy. 2) If it is well above, already near 210 or above, look to maybe sell a big move up, possibly selling some out of the money, expensive calls.
Since, this week may be less technically relevant, Ill focus on Open Interest. Open interest is considerably more bullish than last week.
First, 60 min graph. Confluence of targets between 212/220; even more so at 225.
Friday held the 10 day moving average (blue MA on this graph). The whole pattern was near perfect ABC correction, possible a running flat; either way, it points up.
Roaster Open Interest - still in a precarious position, especially going into Christmas poorly covered and poorly price fixed.
Producers - you can see what was effectively hedge lifting (buying w/out hedging) and now there is more interest. However, pattern suggests more upside as CenAm is still barely harvesting and Brazilians can wait a little more.
Proprietary graph - not perfect but has nicely captured general moves. Zero line cross suggests more upside.
Also proprietary and one of my favorite - still suggesting more upside, but bottoming and indicating an short-term end is nigh.
Warehouse Stocks - Record decline / record prices.
Two strategies on the QEII. 1) If the mkt is below current level (204ish), you should be ready to buy. 2) If it is well above, already near 210 or above, look to maybe sell a big move up, possibly selling some out of the money, expensive calls.
Since, this week may be less technically relevant, Ill focus on Open Interest. Open interest is considerably more bullish than last week.
First, 60 min graph. Confluence of targets between 212/220; even more so at 225.
Friday held the 10 day moving average (blue MA on this graph). The whole pattern was near perfect ABC correction, possible a running flat; either way, it points up.
Roaster Open Interest - still in a precarious position, especially going into Christmas poorly covered and poorly price fixed.
Producers - you can see what was effectively hedge lifting (buying w/out hedging) and now there is more interest. However, pattern suggests more upside as CenAm is still barely harvesting and Brazilians can wait a little more.
Proprietary graph - not perfect but has nicely captured general moves. Zero line cross suggests more upside.
Also proprietary and one of my favorite - still suggesting more upside, but bottoming and indicating an short-term end is nigh.
Warehouse Stocks - Record decline / record prices.
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