Monday, January 3, 2011

Week Jan 2nd - Running out of gas

Last post didn't see market above 235 and here we are at 240.
The question for me still remains, who will buy this to take further?
Roasters came in rather desperately last two weeks.
Much of the buying seemed to be from small spec (Open interest and # of small traders).
All this to me smells of an intermediate top.
(see 60 min).  While I am still bearish short-term, 60 min pattern could show further upside if bull pattern breaks above recent highs.

Weekly
* candles are generally bullish and showing continuation.
* Slow stochastic no longer showing divergence, still well overbought (one of the longest periods in overbought territory in 30 years).
* I think a short pattern with March calls might work well.  Sell H11 280 call.


OI Indicators - Should be signaling correction.


60 Min - has this broken out again to the upside?
* hit nicely 1.38 extension.
* however, pattern is always indicating continuation.
* any short would have to be stopped out above recent high.