Week Nov 8th - Wed Follow up

Well..we have gotten into the rectangle area and hitting extension targets nicely.
If the pattern plays out, we should get to at least 221.50.  key will be if we hold the 209.25 break.
My biggest concern with NY is London's failure to break the 2008 support point (now resistance) at 2096 (continuous chart).  In failing to do so, it also hit perfectly the bull pennant target of 2098.  Furthermore, today put in a near key reversal pattern off of spinning top candle pattern with slow stochastic overbought and hooking down.  London is ugly.

Note: Ice stocks fell twice by more than 25,000 in the last few days.  

60 min - Can't see us too far above 220 in the near term.

Ldn - if that 2098 holds, then that should be it for a while.

Week Nov 8th

Mkt did as probably everyone expected - rallied with dollar weakness (stupid sell off prior to it). I can't really find anything truly standout in the charts other than they point up.  One noteworthy observation (see weekly elliot wave chart) is that Thursdays high came within 50 pts (209.25) of August 97 high.  Above this there are not many technically significant points until the May 97 high of 318.00. Best technical guides going forward will be channels, elliot wave, chart patterns and Fibonacci extensions. As mentioned in the previous week, extensions point to a cluster of targets from 2.12 to 225, the highest cluster in the 224 to 226 area; that would also be within the original channel started off the 140 breakout. Bull flag patterns confirm those fibonacci extensions too. But, we need to break the current high and the August 97 high - very nice technical set up.  Given First Notice Day is coming on the 19th and roasters open interest position is low for the this time of the year, it seems very probable that we get a new high.

Other than being outright long, I think a great trade would be a nice H11 190/180 put spread financed by selling the 280 call. You won't have any weather to get too radical a spike and the market can't go straight up forever.  But, wait on that trade.

Weekly - eventually (next few months), I think we do see that 170 question mark, but for the time being still pointing up. Solid red horizontal line is the 209.75, Aug 97 high.

60 min - taking on a five wave move up - in "elliot" we may be in the 5th of a 3rd of a final 5th ! The final fifth being a big move up to challent the 318 high.  When?  could be a year or two. And the reason I think the put spread could be interesting soon.

Roaster - position actually reduced going into the final two weeks of dec fixations.
Note:  Once fixations end for Dec you will remove a huge amount of the pressure for hedge lifting on exporters and dealers.

Graph x - until this graph turns up decidedly, it still supports upside.

Graph is confirming upside prediction and no divergence yet.