Week Nov 15th - "Carrot or three course meal?"

I think many people - myself included - were expecting the funds, after reaching the 218 high, to dangle a "carrot" in front of the roasters; that carrot being a little dip from the high into the 212 area, then yank it away (buy it back up), creating panic buying into FND.  So far, they have given them a three course meal in the form of 3 consecutive down days with Dec settling at 200.45. Still, I think we do get that last dash buying spree, maybe getting us back into the 212 area again, but not too much higher. As noted in Wednesday's update, London was an ugly key with considerable follow through selling after failing to breach the May 2008 support/resistance of 2096. That combined with massive negative sentiment (sugar giving up 23 % at one pt) made in nearly impossible for further advance.  Coffee then broke the 209.25 and fell beneath 200.

Some trade house did a similar trade to the one I recommended last week; sell overhead calls and buy a put spread.  Their strategy was a H11 240 call vs 185/165 put spread.  A bit aggressive for me and I think overshooting the downside. I still like the 280/190/180 combination; low risk/high probability.

As open interest will be published tomorrow, I'll wait to give an opinion with more conviction.

60 min - i've redrawn the channel (previous in blue).
Holding the 198.65 breakout was important.  Still leaves open this last leg up as 3rd wave. I'm not betting on it, but worth noting that once we close within that, the odds increase dramatically that we see a much steeper sell off.

I think if we can get above the 206 area early on, it should provide support for further upside.

Brazil is on holiday tomorrow  and thus removing some selling pressure.  Basically 4 effective days to fix vs Dec and little appetitive to roll to Mar.

Weekly - bearish shooting star candle and slow stochastic showing some divergence in overbought territory.  Last week's high was off the up trend line.
Long term (next 1 to 2 years) is up.
Medium term, still looking to retest 170/180, worst case 150.