Monday, November 15, 2010

Week Nov 15th - OI update

Mkt did put in a nice performance today as expected, but needed/needs to get through 209.00 (vs H11).

Delayed open interest report was a little mixed for me.  While it may support a little upside in the short-term, I am expecting a sell off shortly. Report vs last Tuesday (Dec @ 217.05) vs. today at 206 is hard to compare.   I am expecting Friday's to look much more bearish. Some of my indicators are moving into extreme over-bought readings (these take a while to develop and why I like them - less whipsaw).

I would recommend initiating a short position if you have not already.  Given the volatility, some combination of short calls, long puts would be a low risk strategy. Again, the 270/190/180, short call vs put spread might be interesting.  As mentioned yesterday, I still expect one last gasp up this week; so there may be another good opportunity tomorrow or Wednesday.

Tradeflow ( H11 )- was expecting us to get into the grey rectangle today.  Tomorrow needs to.

L/S Index - I think the 2008 levels were a bit of an anomaly and that current levels indicate a sell opportunity.


Other index - extreme and hooking back = selling opportunity.


Ratio - would like to see this indicator hooking up too before initiating a short.  However, given market after Tuesday, I expect it will.



Note: GCA Stocks fell 319 k. Should be supportive tomorrow.

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