Thursday, April 14, 2011

April 14th

No longer updating every Sunday; only when my opinion changes or targets are met.  And they were met today.  So, is that constructive with more upside or do we retrace.  I am still thinking the larger move off of 297 is still part of a correction that implies a new high eventually.  The new up move off of 255 is a correction of a correction ! Not exactly clear yet, however market has traded nicely in technical terms with today's high hitting near the 78 % retracement of 297/255. This second leg up, launched from a bull flag with base at 270, is projecting up to 299.  I also have some other point and figure targets at the same level.  So, I would continue to err on the long side with your first stop ard 281.60. Or more agressively, 279.50 /277.90.

60 Min - also, depending on how you draw this, you could make the last few months a bullish wedge pattern.  Seems the first leg down was a a 5 wave diagonal pattern which makes me think we test lower in the medium term.  Can we take out 300, test lower and then resume the trend? I think so.



Weekly - held nicely the trend line with volume increasing substantially. Bearish candles still in play.  Again, this looks like a third wave of the final 5th.



Point and figure - pointing to 299.




Open interest - fund future only position showed liquidation, however, quite a bit of options (yellow bars) recently, adding to long position.  (mkt has increased nearly 20 cents since report (tuesday mkt).

No comments:

Post a Comment