If this was the end of the 3rd wave, then a 38 % retracement would be 215.35 and a 50 % would be 195.05. Seems substantial, but in %, its only a 27 %. What is the likelihood that we get there? 100 % of some period !! , but in the next 3 months or so, I'd say there is a 50 % chance and increasing by the day. Is it a sell now? I'd be looking to the intraday charts to guide that. Intraday, this has the look of a 5 wave move down. So in the short-term, we should see some retracement. I would have liked to see this try for 257 first, but if it doesn't, then I could see it try at 280 again.
Once the panic settles, there is still the massive bull trend.
Bull arguments:
1) Bull trend is still intact.
2) Fundamental picture hasn't changed. Brazil exports hint at little carry over.
3) Fund position is not over extended by any strech and much less so now.
Bear arguments:
1) Hit the upper channel line on 10 year weekly chart.
2) Hit the 292 + target
3) Daily key reversal
4) Weekly bearish shooting star with follow through this week.
5) SP500 looks like it topped earlier and commodities followed shortly.
6) Risk aversion
7) Slow Stochastic now hooking and suggesting sell signal for this weeks close.
...etc.
Bear arguments dominate for time being.
Weekly - nice bounce off upper channel line and very bearish shooting star candle with follow through.
Point and Figure - Broke through all support.
OI Indicators - indicator needs to accelerate, but it is pointing to more downside.
