Week March 7th - Fat Monday?

Phat Monday if you are a sambaing (sp) Brazilian producer.  Today had the feeling of just being out the gate.  With no Brazilian selling, Centrals arguably done and some talk of a less than stellar Brazil off crop in 2011/2012, maybe 292 near term is cutting a little too conservative.   Open interest seemed to confirm that trade is lifting hedges and fund position is liquidating into it (or taking a breather); arguably a very bullish OI report and Monday's performance seems to confirm that. Furhtermore, I have my close (and then some) above 276.  This should open up 292 + (80/20 odds).

Brazil exports - unofficial Feb exports seem to show the pace steady, leaving less and less coffee in Brazil.

Weekly - love how this last wave taken a perfect 3rd wave feel - vertical and effortless. Not sure when and how the 4th wave will come in, but my guess is it won't have the energy to do too much damage?  30/50 cent correction?

Point and Figure - lets try something a little different.  These graphs take a lot of the noise out, but to be honest, there hasn't been noise since the second move off of 2.00.

Open Interest - Disaggregated producer open interest - futures and options.
looks like a lot of hedge lifting there.